Patent Pending

Reasoning Validity

A system for continuously validating the premises behind AI decisions. Not how confident the model is, but whether the inputs it relied on are still true.

Patent Application

System and Method for Cognitive Validity Assurance and Reasoning Integrity in Autonomous AI Agents

A system for maintaining the cognitive validity of autonomous agents is disclosed. The architecture utilises a Causal Substrate to model logical dependencies between a hypothesis and its supporting premises, distinct from statistical probability. An Integrity Audit engine continuously calculates a vector-based Semantic Distance between an initial Epistemic Snapshot and the current Operational Context. If this distance exceeds a threshold defined by an Epistemic Gravity score, a software interrupt or real-time control event is generated to inhibit agent execution, preventing action on stale or invalid logic. The system further comprises a Deception Spectrum Analyser for entropy-based signal filtering, a Stratified Trust Policy for source governance, and an Autonomous Logic Repair module configured to hot-swap invalid premises via a hierarchy of fallback positions. An Open-Ended State Machine provides fail-safe adaptation for unknown events through sandboxed process generation, ensuring resilient operation in dynamic environments.


Filed: December 2025 (Singapore) | Status: Patent pending

The Problem

AI confidence scores tell you how sure a model is about its output. They don't tell you whether the inputs that led to that output are still valid. A model can be 99% confident in a conclusion built on data that went stale seconds ago.

Consider a trading algorithm that recommends a position based on market conditions observed at 9:01am. By 9:02am, a central bank announcement has changed the underlying dynamics. The model's statistical confidence in its recommendation hasn't changed, but the premises supporting it have collapsed. The model doesn't know this because it measures its own certainty, not the health of its inputs.

In financial services, healthcare, and critical infrastructure, this gap between statistical confidence and premise validity can have severe consequences. Decisions proceed with high confidence on foundations that no longer hold.

How It Works

The Cognitive Causality Architecture models the logical dependencies behind every decision and continuously checks whether those dependencies are still valid.

Dependency mapping

Every decision is modelled as a graph of logical dependencies: which facts support which conclusions. Hard facts are linked to verifiable data sources. Assumptions are linked to probabilistic models or qualitative assessments. Predictions are linked to supporting evidence with time-locked validation. When one conclusion becomes a premise for another, the dependency chain is tracked recursively.

Continuous validation

Each fact and assumption is continuously checked against its source. Has the market price changed? Has the regulation been updated? Is the sensor reading still current? The system uses a tiered architecture: critical premises (those whose failure would invalidate the entire conclusion) are checked in milliseconds against primary data sources. Less critical premises are checked in seconds or minutes against secondary sources. Every premise is scored across eight data quality dimensions: accuracy, completeness, timeliness, consistency, validity, uniqueness, reliability, and relevance.

The Validity Warrant

The system produces a Validity Warrant: a scored, cryptographically signed attestation of how healthy every premise is right now. The warrant weighs each premise by how structurally important it is to the conclusion. A premise whose failure would collapse the entire reasoning chain is weighted far more heavily than a contextual detail.

The warrant does not block decisions. It documents the exact state of every premise, including any flaws, so there is a complete evidence record. When a decision is made, the warrant accompanies it as an auditable attestation of what was true at that moment.

Degradation and escalation

When premises degrade beyond configurable thresholds, the system can signal warnings or escalate to human review. In safety-critical deployments, a deterministic kill switch can prevent execution when critical premises fail. In advisory deployments, the same degradation is recorded in the warrant as a drift metric, enabling downstream systems to factor it into their own decision logic.

Self-repair

When a premise fails, the system does not simply halt. It follows a structured fallback sequence: first attempting to swap in a validated alternative source, then searching for semantically equivalent data, then falling back to a conservative operating mode. Only when all repair attempts fail does the system lock out. Even crisis decisions made under degraded conditions are fully documented in the warrant.

What Makes It New

Existing systems measure output confidence, not input validity. The Cognitive Causality Architecture separates these two concepts and provides continuous, real-time premise validation with cryptographic evidence of what was true when each decision was made.

differenceSeparates Confidence from Validity

Statistical confidence and premise validity are tracked independently. A model can be highly confident on invalid premises, and the system makes that visible.

updateContinuous Validation

Premises are checked continuously against their sources, not just at the moment a decision is made. Degradation is detected in real time.

fingerprintCryptographic Evidence

Every Validity Warrant is cryptographically signed and tamper-evident. The evidence record of what was true when a decision was made cannot be altered after the fact.

securityAdversarial Resilience

A built-in signal analysis system classifies incoming data for signs of noise injection and manipulation, filtering adversarial inputs before they can affect premise integrity.

Example Applications

Trading decisions. A trading algorithm recommends a position based on market data, volatility models, and macroeconomic assumptions. The system continuously validates each premise against live market feeds. When a central bank announcement invalidates the macroeconomic assumptions, the Validity Warrant immediately reflects the degradation, documenting exactly which premises changed and when.

Clinical decisions. A diagnostic AI reaches a conclusion based on patient history, lab results, and imaging. The system tracks whether the underlying data is current. When new lab results arrive that contradict earlier values, the system flags the affected premises and documents the shift in the warrant, enabling clinicians to reassess with full awareness of what changed.

Supply chain optimisation. An AI agent recommends sourcing decisions based on supplier status, pricing, and logistics data. The system detects when a supplier's operating status changes or when shipping route conditions shift, surfacing the impact on downstream decisions before they execute on outdated assumptions.

Why Current Approaches Fall Short

Several existing technologies address aspects of AI confidence and data quality. None provides continuous, real-time validation of the premises underlying AI decisions.

Technology / Approach What It Does Gap
Probabilistic AI / LLMs Generate outputs based on statistical likelihood Cannot maintain epistemic integrity over time in open-ended environments.
Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) Retrieve context via semantic similarity Vector proximity does not equate to temporal validity. A relevant document may be factually obsolete.
Truth Maintenance Systems Maintain consistency in symbolic logic databases Operate in a closed, boolean world. Cannot handle probabilistic validity (0.0 to 1.0).
Finite State Machines Enforce rigorous state transition logic Fixed state set cannot accommodate dynamic premise validation. No probabilistic confidence weighting.
Model Explainability (SHAP, LIME) Post-hoc feature attribution Explains what the model did, not whether the premises remain valid. Static at prediction time.

Key Concepts

The core terminology of Reasoning Validity and the Cognitive Causality Architecture.

Premise
A factual or assumed input on which a decision depends. Premises are typed (hard fact, assumption, prediction) and linked to verifiable data sources.
Validity
The degree to which a premise is currently true and reliable, scored on a continuous scale from 0.0 (fully invalid) to 1.0 (fully valid). Distinct from statistical confidence.
Epistemic Integrity
The overall health of the logical foundations supporting a decision. Maintained by continuous premise validation rather than one-time verification.
Validity Warrant
A scored, cryptographically signed attestation documenting the state of every premise at the moment a decision is made. The warrant is tamper-evident and provides a complete evidence record.
Premise Decay
The degradation of a premise's validity over time as conditions change. Decay rate depends on source volatility, domain dynamics, and the recency of the last validation check.
Causal Substrate
A directed graph modelling the logical dependencies between a hypothesis and its supporting premises. Tracks which conclusions depend on which facts, and how dependency chains propagate.
Epistemic Snapshot
A frozen record of the complete premise state at a specific moment. Used as a baseline for measuring subsequent drift and semantic distance.
Epistemic Gravity
A score reflecting the structural importance of a premise to the overall conclusion. High-gravity premises are those whose failure would invalidate the entire reasoning chain.
Semantic Distance
A vector-based measure of how far current conditions have drifted from the original Epistemic Snapshot. When distance exceeds the Epistemic Gravity threshold, a control event is triggered.
Source Registry
A governed catalogue of data sources, each with a trust classification, refresh frequency, and quality metrics. Premises are linked to registered sources for continuous validation.
Deception Spectrum Analyser
An entropy-based signal filtering component that classifies incoming data for signs of noise injection, manipulation, or adversarial interference before it can affect premise integrity.

Scoring

The Contextual Confidence Score separates model confidence from premise validity. A high model confidence on invalid premises produces a low overall score.

CCS(d, t) = ModelConfidence(d) × AggregateValidity(Premises(d), t)
  • CCS(d, t): The Contextual Confidence Score for decision d at time t.
  • ModelConfidence(d): The model's statistical confidence in its output.
  • AggregateValidity: The weighted validity of all premises supporting the decision, evaluated at time t.

The Validity Warrant score is computed as a gravity-weighted average of premise validities, penalised by drift from initial conditions.

W = Σ(Gi × Vs,i × (1 - Δi)) / Σ(Gi)
  • Gi: Epistemic Gravity of premise i (structural importance to the conclusion).
  • Vs,i: Current validity score of premise i (0.0 to 1.0).
  • Δi: Semantic distance (drift) of premise i from its original Epistemic Snapshot.

Regulatory Coverage

The system addresses data quality, continuous monitoring, transparency, and documentation requirements across major regulatory frameworks. For a complete framework-by-framework mapping, see the Regulatory Coverage Matrix.

gavelUK AI Act

Requires transparency and auditability of AI reasoning for high-risk applications. The Validity Warrant and Causal Substrate provide immutable evidence of reasoning integrity.

gavelEU Artificial Intelligence Act

Mandates bias and fairness auditing. The Source Registry with Stratified Trust and Deception Spectrum Analyser provide mechanisms for detecting adversarial inputs and biased sources.

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fingerprintGDPR Article 22

Requires explainability when decisions produce legal or similarly significant effects. The Validity Warrant supplies cryptographically signed explanation records.

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medical_servicesFDA Software as a Medical Device Guidance

Requires safety and efficacy validation for autonomous systems. The Medical Robotics embodiment demonstrates validation of critical dosing decisions through the Cognitive Causality Architecture.

trending_upSEC Model Risk Management

Requires governance, audit trails, and escalation controls for quantitative trading systems. The Thai Gold Market embodiment demonstrates real-time premise validation and M-of-N approval workflows.

account_balanceSOX Compliance

Requires trustworthy, auditable decision records. The append-only audit trail and Validity Warrant provide regulatory-grade evidence.

Risk Library

Corvair maintains a publicly available Agentic AI Risk Library cataloguing 133 identified risks across 15 categories. This patent-pending system directly addresses 38 risks across 9 categories through specific patent-pending mechanisms. See also the Regulatory Coverage Matrix for framework-by-framework mapping.

Reasoning and Epistemic Risks 9 risks
  • R-RE-01 Hallucination in Operational Context: Validity Warrant quantifies premise integrity independently of model confidence; LLM Hallucination Guardrails maps claims to Causal Substrate and flags ungrounded assertions
  • R-RE-02 Reasoning Chain Corruption: Causal Substrate traces logical dependencies between premises and conclusions; Autonomous Logic Repair hot-swaps corrupted nodes
  • R-RE-04 Decision Architecture Absence: Causal Substrate provides a formal, explicit decision architecture with directed graph encoding of logical dependencies
  • R-RE-05 Post-Hoc Rationalization: Validity Warrant records the complete state of all premises at the moment of decision, not after the fact
  • R-RE-06 Causal Dependency Failure: Causal Substrate explicitly models why conclusions depend on specific premises; Epistemic Gravity identifies single points of epistemic failure
  • R-RE-09 Confidence-Validity Confusion: Core innovation: separates model confidence (statistical probability) from premise validity (0.0 to 1.0 measure of whether inputs remain true)
  • R-RE-10 Reasoning Non-Reproducibility: Epistemic Snapshot enables exact replay; Validity Warrant provides cryptographically signed evidence of reasoning state
  • R-RE-11 Reasoning Durability Failure: Premise Decay detection with configurable decay curves; event-driven invalidation for immediate state changes
  • R-RE-12 World Model Misalignment: Semantic Distance continuously measures drift between current reasoning state and approved baseline; Kill Switch triggers when threshold exceeded
Temporal and Validity Risks 7 risks
  • R-TV-01 Temporal Validity Drift: Premise Validity Function continuously tracks temporal degradation of premise truth values
  • R-TV-02 Causal Dependency Drift: Causal Substrate propagates validity changes through dependency graph; Epistemic Gravity identifies high-impact drift
  • R-TV-03 Assumption Obsolescence: Event-driven invalidation triggers immediate premise decay when watched conditions change
  • R-TV-04 Document Version Blindness: Source Registry tracks data source lineage, last update timestamps, and version provenance for every premise
  • R-TV-05 Epistemic Gravity Failure: Epistemic Gravity scoring identifies load-bearing nodes; monitors structural importance to prevent cascading failure
  • R-TV-06 Temporal Validity Window Absence: Validity Warrant records the exact temporal state of every premise at decision execution; Premise Validity Function enforces time-bounded validity windows
  • R-TV-08 Logic Erosion: Autonomous Logic Repair detects and remediates logic degradation through four-tier fallback hierarchy
Accountability and Auditability 6 risks
  • R-AA-01 Attribution Gap: Validity Warrant records source lineage for every premise; Source Registry assigns tier classifications and veracity ratings
  • R-AA-02 Reasoning Opacity: Causal Substrate makes reasoning chains explicit as directed graphs; every dependency is inspectable and traceable
  • R-AA-03 Explainability Failure: Validity Warrant serves as a regulatory artefact providing cryptographically signed, immutable explanation records
  • R-AA-04 Audit Trail Break at Boundaries: Append-only, tamper-evident audit log with cryptographic hash chaining; every premise state change and escalation event recorded
  • R-AA-05 Accountability Void: Validity Warrant creates a clear accountability chain from data source through premise to decision; Risk-Authority Governance Matrix assigns explicit approval authorities
  • R-AA-06 Interpretive Path Absence: Causal Substrate provides explicit, traversable interpretive paths from any conclusion back through supporting premises to source data
Cybersecurity and Adversarial 3 risks
  • R-CS-01 Prompt Injection (Direct and Indirect): Deception Spectrum Analyser classifies inputs across Provocation, Distortion, and Directed Instructions dimensions; entropy-based filtering detects injection
  • R-CS-05 Memory and Context Poisoning: Deception Spectrum Analyser places suspicious inputs in Epistemic Quarantine; Cognitive Firewall blocks contaminated content
  • R-CS-07 Agent as Social Engineering Vector: Deception Spectrum Analyser detects Provocation attacks and applies Cognitive Muting to prevent exploitation
Data Governance and Integrity 3 risks
  • R-DG-01 Data Lineage Severance: Source Registry maintains complete data lineage from source through premise to decision
  • R-DG-04 Data Quality Amplification: Source Registry 4-Tier Stratification weights data quality by source reliability; low-tier sources receive proportionally lower influence
  • R-DG-07 Derived Data Accountability Gap: Validity Warrant records full provenance chain for derived data; Causal Substrate traces how source data flows through reasoning
Operational Resilience 2 risks
  • R-OR-02 Workflow State Corruption: Open-Ended State Machine manages state transitions with Provisional, Canonical, and Deprecated lifecycle; sandboxed process generation handles unknown events
  • R-OR-05 API Dependency Failure and Silent Degradation: Premise Validity Function detects source degradation through data freshness checking and event-driven invalidation
Quality and Measurement 3 risks
  • R-QM-04 Measurement Absence: Objectivity Score, Forecasting Score, and Contextual Confidence Score provide quantitative measures of reasoning quality
  • R-QM-05 False Quality Signal: Forecasting Score separates outcome accuracy from reasoning quality; flags correct predictions built on invalid reasoning
  • R-QM-06 Quality-Autonomy Tradeoff Failure: Dynamic Risk-Based Thresholds tune validity requirements per decision type, agent role, and risk level
Regulatory and Compliance 2 risks
  • R-RC-03 Static Assessment Failure: Continuous premise validation replaces periodic assessment; Premise Validity Function monitors validity in real time
  • R-RC-05 Compliance Theater: Validity Warrant provides substantive, cryptographically signed compliance evidence rather than pro-forma attestation
Model and Pipeline 2 risks
  • R-MP-01 Model Drift Propagation: Semantic Distance detects drift between current reasoning state and approved baseline; Kill Switch halts propagation when threshold exceeded
  • R-MP-06 Model Output as Ground Truth: Forecasting Score validates the reasoning chain behind correct predictions; prevents reinforcement of flawed logic

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